989
FXUS62 KTBW 171211
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
711 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING, WITH LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURNING NORTH, USHERING IN A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE WILL SEE CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS
FIRST COOL-DOWN WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER, AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO
EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TUESDAY
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY PLEASANT WITH LOWER DEW POINTS, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE EVEN WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE ATLANTIC, BRINGING A COLD FRONT
OVER THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING A BETTER RAIN CHANCE FOR
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN
THEN COMING TO AN END BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LONGER-LASTING COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECTED OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AS
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS FOR MID-
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 54 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 65 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 73 52 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 54 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 70 44 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 70 58 75 65 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHARLOTTE
HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA
BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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