896
FXUS62 KTBW 171905
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
205 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL HELP TO KEEP OUR WEATHER
MORE ACTIVE AND COOLER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAY. THE FRONT THAT
PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS NOW SOUTH OF FLORIDA. THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND IT IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES. WE
SHOULD HAVE AN EVEN COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE 30'S ACROSS LEVY COUNTY WITH 40'S AND 50'S EVERYWHERE ELSE
BEFORE BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70'S BY THE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL START TO WORK ITS AWAY THROUGH
THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT WINDS SOUTHERLY
BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80'S. THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE PUSHING
THROUGH FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED BRING EVEN COLDER AIR TO THE STATE TO WRAP UP OUR
WORK WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60'S FOR MOST OF US ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH OUR COLDEST MORNING BEING FRIDAY. WE COULD
SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN LEVY COUNTY WITH 40'S STRETCHING
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO LEE COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE COOLER WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE DEBATE
AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS IF WE WILL HAVE A LOW FORM IN THE
GULF. GFS CURRENTLY IS GOING ALL IN ON THE GULF LOW SHOWING IT PUSH
THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY BRINGING SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. EURO
ON THE OTHER HAND IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH SHOWING AN OPEN
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH BRINGING JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP LOWER POPS IN THE
FORECAST AND SEE IF WE CAN GET SOME MORE MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
WE WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THIS WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
US NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER FRONT SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND OUR COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY IS
KEEPING RH'S JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT RHS TO
RISE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH GIVING
US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DROP AGAIN
BEHIND FRONT BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 54 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 80 60 82 65 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 73 52 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 75 54 78 64 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 70 44 77 58 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 70 58 75 65 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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