434
FXUS62 KTBW 180003
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
703 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE FILLED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY, WITH EARLY EVENING IR SATELLITE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH 925MB
FLOW TURNING TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT, A MOIST LAYER JUST OFF THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BRING CLOUDS BACK IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TUESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER DAY OF BEAUTIFUL WEATHER, WITH
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY.
THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7PM. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EVENING. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS OF AROUND 2000FT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND 08-10Z TUESDAY
MORNING, LIFTING OUT BY AROUND 14Z. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
REDUCED CEILINGS WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY,
AND KPGD. OTHERWISE, RAIN FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
WE WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THIS WEEK.
THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
US NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER
ANOTHER FRONT SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL
SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 53 73 64 78 / 0 0 0 60
FMY 59 81 65 83 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 52 75 62 82 / 0 0 0 50
SRQ 54 75 63 79 / 0 0 0 50
BKV 44 74 57 78 / 0 0 0 70
SPG 57 72 65 76 / 0 0 0 60
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE...SHIVELEY
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