447
FXUS62 KTBW 180730
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS SET UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ON
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION RIDGES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. THIS
WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW, RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS SET UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES
TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING MOVES TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO FLORIDA ON A NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING ANOTHER SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHS STARTING ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60'S
AND 70'S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID
30'S ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR, RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
PLEASANT WEATHER WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND SEAS 1-3 FEET EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 2-3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, INCREASE TO
AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-6 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE PLEASANT WEATHER
WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 64 77 57 / 0 0 60 30
FMY 81 65 82 64 / 0 0 10 30
GIF 77 63 82 58 / 0 0 50 40
SRQ 78 64 79 59 / 0 0 50 40
BKV 76 56 77 50 / 0 10 70 30
SPG 74 65 75 59 / 0 0 60 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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