845
FXUS62 KTBW 181839
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
139 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CURRENTLY HIGHS ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS AS WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO OUR OVERNIGHT PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL START
TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY AND
KEEP TEMPERATURES MORE MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS STAYING IN THE
60'S.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH OUR AREAS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NORTH OF I-4.
WE WILL MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 60'S WITH OUR COLDEST
MORNING BEING FRIDAY WHERE THE UPPER 30'S COULD BE SEE AS FAR SOUTH
AS INLAND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70'S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
RAIN. WE WON'T SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. MVFR AND IFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN OUR SOUTHERLY
AND INLAND TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY ON WEDNESDAY THIS
WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AND INCREASE
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL SLOWLY START COMING DOWN AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
EXPECT RHS TO RISE TOMORROW AS OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
GIVING US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DROP AGAIN
BEHIND FRONT BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HUMID WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 75 57 64 / 0 70 40 0
FMY 65 81 64 74 / 0 10 30 10
GIF 63 80 57 67 / 10 50 40 0
SRQ 63 78 59 67 / 0 50 50 0
BKV 58 76 49 63 / 10 70 30 0
SPG 64 74 59 63 / 0 60 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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