423
FXUS62 KTBW 190029
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
WEAK SOUTHERLY MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
HIGHLANDS COUNTY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DISSIPATING, BUT THE INCREASED MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THEN
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. BEGINNING AROUND 08-10Z, MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, AND KSRQ, WITH REDUCED CEILINGS FORECAST TO HOLD
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, PATCHY FOG LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAN STRATUS, WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
AROUND 10Z-13Z. DURING THE AFTERNOON, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS BY AROUND 19-20Z AND THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS BY
AROUND 22Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 728 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
AREAS OF SEA FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH WINDS THEN
INCREASING TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON SATURDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WATERS ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 75 57 64 / 0 70 40 0
FMY 65 81 64 74 / 0 10 30 10
GIF 63 80 57 67 / 10 50 40 0
SRQ 63 78 59 67 / 0 50 50 0
BKV 58 76 49 63 / 10 70 30 0
SPG 64 74 59 63 / 0 60 40 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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