559
FXUS62 KTBW 191214
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
714 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES THIS MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EASTWARD TOWARD
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE THE NATURE COAST EARLY AFTERNOON
AND FILLING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
SUPPORTING UPPER LOW AND TROUGHING MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO FLORIDA
ON A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AFTER A
WARM AND MUGGY START TO THE DAY, THE NEXT COOL DOWN WILL START
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS STARTING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT ONLY IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30'S ALONG
THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE 40'S AND 50'S FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, THEN TEMPERATURES MODERATE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
START TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE RAIN
WILL BE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE SHIFTING WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FEET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM, WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-6 FEET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 1-3 FEET EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH
DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, BUT RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 57 65 41 / 70 40 0 0
FMY 82 65 75 49 / 10 30 10 0
GIF 83 56 68 40 / 60 50 0 0
SRQ 79 59 68 43 / 60 50 0 0
BKV 78 49 65 34 / 80 40 0 0
SPG 75 59 63 45 / 70 50 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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