908
FXUS62 KTBW 191838
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE. IT IS
BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT
HEAD SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MEANS WE CAN
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT NOT EXPECTING THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING.
WE WILL HAVE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY STAY IN THE 60'S WITH OUR
COLDEST MORNING BEING FRIDAY WHERE THE UPPER 30'S COULD BE SEE AS
FAR SOUTH AS INLAND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70'S. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOME EXTRA CLOUDS AND SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD
RAIN. WE WON'T SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND QUIET WEATHER AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO START WARMING UP BY MID WEEK WITH HIGHS GETTING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70'S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT FMY AND RWS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT RAIN AT FMY
AND RSW BUT CHANCES ARE JUST TO LOW TO ADD IN TAFS. CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER AND SAY AT IFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AND
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STARTING
TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY TODAY THAT HAS SHIFTED
OUR WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AND INCREASE THEM TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. WE WILL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTH AGAIN AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MIGHT BE
NEEDED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL SLOWLY START COMING DOWN
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
OUR NEXT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH US TODAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING HOURS. HUMIDITY WILL START TO DROP AGAIN BEHIND FRONT BUT
ONCE AGAIN SHOULD STAY JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMID WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE RISE AS WE GO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 57 65 41 65 / 40 0 0 0
FMY 65 75 49 73 / 30 10 0 0
GIF 56 68 40 64 / 50 0 0 0
SRQ 59 68 43 69 / 50 0 0 0
BKV 49 65 34 63 / 40 0 0 0
SPG 59 63 45 63 / 50 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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