027  
FXUS62 KTBW 200707  
AFDTBW  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL  
207 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION  
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 157 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
ACTIVE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING U/L PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN  
U/L DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE OFF  
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A  
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DIG OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PUSH ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT. A  
TRAILING SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE  
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON MONDAY, AND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.  
 
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS WEST  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MUCH COLDER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY WITH  
CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES  
TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST,  
WITH MID 30S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NATURE COAST...UPPER 30S TO  
AROUND 40 AWAY FROM THE COAST CENTRAL AREAS...AND LOWER TO MID  
40S SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED TONIGHT WHICH WILL  
CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH...LOWER TO MID  
30S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. A FREEZE WARNING  
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR INLAND LEVY COUNTY. A COLD WEATHER  
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA  
TONIGHT AS WELL, HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AS FAR SOUTH AS  
ABOUT SARASOTA...AND WILL NEED TO RE-EVALUATE WITH THE NEXT  
FORECAST PACKAGE LATER TODAY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A RATHER  
WIDE RANGE OF MAX TEMPS...FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER  
70S SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDINESS FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG OVER-  
RUNNING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA. TEMPS WILL MODIFY  
CONSIDERABLY, BUT WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S  
TO AROUND 40 NORTH...MID TO UPPER 40S CENTRAL...AND LOWER TO MID  
50S SOUTH. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY  
NIGHT AS AN U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
DECREASING CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME HIGH  
CLOUDINESS DUE TO SOUTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE  
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS MONDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
AREAS OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIKELY IMPACT ALL  
TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE  
REGION. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER SUNRISE BECOMING MVFR  
FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS  
SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY SCT030-035.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY DUE TO GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF  
A COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 120 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025  
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL  
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL  
LEVELS.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
TPA 66 41 64 49 / 0 0 0 0  
FMY 76 48 74 55 / 0 0 0 0  
GIF 69 41 65 50 / 0 0 0 0  
SRQ 69 43 70 51 / 0 0 0 0  
BKV 65 33 64 42 / 0 0 0 0  
SPG 64 44 64 53 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INLAND LEVY.  
 
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS  
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS  
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL  
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-  
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-  
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO  
60 NM.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY  
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN  
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN  
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