591
FXUS62 KTBW 210051
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
751 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 750 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED THROUGH FLORIDA AND IS NOW SITUATED
SOUTH OF THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN AS COLD, DRY AIR
ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTED CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME, SO
THE FORECAST DOES NOT NEED TO BE ALTERED AT THIS TIME.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35
DEGREES FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, FROM THE NATURE COAST
SOUTHWARD THROUGH WCFL INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF SWFL, WHERE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NORTHERNMOST REGION OF THE
NATURE COAST, WHERE A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH FLORIDA AND
IS NOW CURRENTLY STATIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STATE.
LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WERE STILL PRESENT THIS MORNING
BUT HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT IN RECENT HOURS. COLD, DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS NOW BUILDING IN, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FOCUS, AS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S, WITH THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE
LOWS RANGE FROM THE 40S IN OUR NORTHERN PORTION AND THE 50S TO THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIP INTO
FLORIDA, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES (30%-40%) OF PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
INTO MONDAY MORNING, THERE REMAINS AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
RAINFALL FROM THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AFTER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
CALMING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOOKING A WEEK AHEAD TO NEXT THURSDAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN APPROACHING FLORIDA LATER THAT
DAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACROSS
THE AREA, CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AS DRY AIR FLOWS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NE TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW WITH ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 251 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
RH VALUES DROP NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS TOMORROW AS COLD, DRY AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH, AND RH VALUES WILL REBOUND
BY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 41 63 50 70 / 0 0 0 10
FMY 49 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 10
GIF 41 64 50 72 / 0 0 0 10
SRQ 43 70 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 33 62 42 71 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 45 63 53 69 / 0 0 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-HARDEE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND
SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...POGGIALI/HURT
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...POGGIALI
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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