594
FXUS62 KTBW 210717
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
217 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW NOT QUITE IN-PHASE ACROSS
THE CONUS AS THE LEAD UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM
WILL RIDE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION ON SATURDAY,
BUT THE S/W TROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA. THE
NEXT TRAILING UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE U/L PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY MID WEEK AS A SHARP U/L RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CANADA...AND A DOWNSTREAM L/W TROUGH
DIGS FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
TODAY. AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH...UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S CENTRAL...AND
MID 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
AS SOUTHERN STREAM U/L MOISTURE BEGINS TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE
AREA. CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
WILL PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER
FLORIDA. THERE WILL BE NO COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK.
AS THE U/L PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER, OVERALL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS LITTLE TO NO RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
A SOLID PATCH OF MVFR CIGS 022-027 IS BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
PUSHING VERY SLOWLY SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND HAS BEEN
IMPACTING LAL FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS LONE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS IS CLOSE TO PUSHING SOUTH OF LAL...AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT LAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE,
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. EXPECT
THE LONE AREA OF MVFR CIGS TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH ONLY FEW-SCT250.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE NEAR AND
OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL REMAIN A BIT ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS...AND SCEC OR
SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 65 50 70 55 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 74 55 77 59 / 0 0 10 20
GIF 65 50 72 54 / 0 0 10 10
SRQ 70 51 74 56 / 0 0 10 10
BKV 64 42 71 46 / 0 0 10 0
SPG 65 53 69 58 / 0 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-HARDEE-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND
SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR INLAND LEVY.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60
NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20
TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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