713
FXUS62 KTBW 211855
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
155 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
DISCUSSION
A NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFTER A
CHILLY START THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED UP NICELY AND
WILL TOP OUT FROM AROUND 60 NORTH TO THE MID 60S AND THEN LOWER
70S OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY SO TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
FOR SUNDAY, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER TEXAS AND ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA ON MONDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR MID-WEEK BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TONIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 50 71 54 71 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 55 77 57 78 / 0 10 0 10
GIF 50 73 53 73 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 51 74 55 73 / 0 10 0 10
BKV 42 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 53 70 57 70 / 0 10 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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