118
FXUS62 KTBW 220749
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OUT
OF PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
TODAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS A
BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH THE MAIN AFFECT BEING A SHIFT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AN UPSTREAM TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE SECONDARY SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CLOSELY FOLLOWING
THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL DIG OVER THE GULF ON MONDAY AND WILL BECOME
THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS WILL AID IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WHICH WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKE IT WILL HAVE DECENT U/L SUPPORT, THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE TIME FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE FROM
THE EAST. THIS WILL SUPPRESS LARGE SCALE INSTABILITY/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS/RAIN.
THE SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST OF FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING
SKIES. AS THIS WILL BE A SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINANT SYSTEM, THERE
WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE TYPE OF AIRMASS ACROSS THE
REGION (I.E. NO CAA/DRIER AIR) IN THE SYSTEMS WAKE, WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGE TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/DEW POINTS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THE U/L PATTERN WILL
BEGIN TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT L/W TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE CENTRAL
GULF. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. NO RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT AS WELL, AND IT WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT A STRAY SHOWER ISN'T OUT OF
THE QUESTION GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE VFR CIGS DEVELOPING 050-060 AT ALL TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
WINDS AND SEAS CURRENTLY REMAIN ELEVATED AT CAUTIONARY LEVELS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, WITH RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. A PERIOD OF SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 53 72 56 / 0 0 0 40
FMY 77 57 79 60 / 10 10 0 30
GIF 73 53 75 56 / 0 0 0 30
SRQ 74 55 75 58 / 0 0 0 40
BKV 71 45 73 51 / 0 0 0 30
SPG 70 56 71 59 / 0 0 0 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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