277
FXUS62 KTBW 261300
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. IT WILL BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH DEW POINTS EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 900 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
AREAS OF IFR/LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY AROUND LAL, WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, EXCEPT SHIFTING TO MORE
NORTHWEST AT TPA, PIE, SRQ, AND FMY DURING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
EAST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
SOME RESIDUAL U/L MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT, AND IS CREATING POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE CLOUDS/FOG WILL
LIFT AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH SKIES BECOMING SUNNY THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
ALOFT, AN U/L TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THE TROUGH EXITS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, THIS WILL ALLOW
HEIGHTS TO BUILD WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BEGIN TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND
FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ENTERING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST...AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING QUICKLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO VEER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE A BIT EACH DAY. AS THE U/L DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND COMBINED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTING
OVER THE AREA, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
WILL STILL CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY. ON
TUESDAY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MID WEEK, WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH
DAY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND WILL HOLD OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS EACH DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. THIS COMBINED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
15 MPH. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER A BIT ON THURSDAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
AGAIN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 85 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 85 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 83 65 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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