182
FXUS62 KTBW 270046
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
846 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST. DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED
INTO THE STATE, WITH DEW POINTS REFLECTING ABOUT A 5-10 DEGREE
DROP COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. LATEST RADAR DEPICTS THE EC/WCFL
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING OVER WCFL AREAS EAST OF I-75, BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
NOTHING MORE THAN A LOCALIZED WIND SHIFT PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A
BRIEF WIND GUST APPEARS LIKELY IN ITS VICINITY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. HI-RES GUIDANCE
HINTS AT ABOUT A 20 PERCENT OR SO CHANCE OF LOW CLOUD OR PATCHY
MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS TOWARD
MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOW PROBABILITY HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE EXISTING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE FAIR DRY WEATHER PERSISTING. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL VEER TO EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND MORE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST DURING FRIDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND HOLD ON INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEN WE'LL
SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE DURING FRIDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY.
FOR SATURDAY BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE
SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHWEST NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
WE'LL SEE SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS POPUP OVER
MAINLY INLAND AREAS. A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE BACK TOWARD THE WEST
COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING, OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY AND MORE HUMID DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF MORE SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT BE
OPTIMAL FOR CONVECTION IN OUR AREA AS IT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY, AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH MORE NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE WARM AND RATHER HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS A WEAKENING COOL FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE WE COULD
SEE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
INTERIOR MONDAY, AND A FEW MORE ACROSS MAINLY THE NATURE COAST AND
INTERIOR TUESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA
BREEZES TO ALLOW ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
OVER THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE STILL
HINTS AT ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT TOWARD MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
PROPAGATING WESTWARD TOWARD COASTAL TERMINALS, HOWEVER WITH DEW
POINTS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, LIKELIHOOD OF
IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN A
FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AFFECTED SOME OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE TO E/NE WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT INCREASING TO E/NE AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO N/NE FOR NORTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
COULD REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE SHOULD
REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
DRIER AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP
BELOW 35% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND DROP TO BETWEEN ABOUT 35% AND 40% FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH, SO NO RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE
RATHER HIGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 60 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 61 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 53 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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