261
FXUS62 KTBW 270612
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
212 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S./FLORIDA. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND THE
SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN U/L ENERGY PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
MONDAY.
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A SERIES OF U/L DISTURBANCE PUSHING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE U.S.
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW,
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. U/L SUPPORT AND
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SHOWER.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY BRIEF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG AROUND SUNRISE AT
LAL/PGD, BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FEW-SCT250 AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS EACH DAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE A BIT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER A BIT ON
FRIDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE REGION WILL AGAIN HAVE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CRITICAL VALUES.
AGAIN, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 87 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 85 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 63 86 67 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 87 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 84 66 82 67 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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