407
FXUS62 KTBW 271849
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
249 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP QUICKLY INTO THE MID
80'S. AS WE GO INTO OUR FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC BUT AT THE SAME TIME WE WILL BE SEEING A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BRING SOME BREEZIER WINDS TO OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING BORDERLINE RED
FLAG WARNING TO THE AREA.
HUMIDITY WILL BE GOING UP AND WINDS GOING DOWN SLIGHTLY BY OUR
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHERLY BRINGING SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY WE WILL SEE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSH THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PLUS THE WARM
HUMIDITY CONDITIONS WILL BRING US SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. DURING THOSE TWO DAYS WE WILL SEE A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS FRONT COULD BRING SOME SEVERE
WEATHER OVER LEVY COUNTY MONDAY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER THE FRONT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE REST OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS
SPRING WITH WIDESPREAD 90'S IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS STARTING EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
A DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL TIGHTEN OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING SOME BREEZIER EASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WE CAN EXPECT EXERCISE
CAUTION ON OUR OFFSHORE WATERS WITH 10 TO 15 EVERYWHERE ELSE. WINDS
WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.
OUR BEST CHANCE TO SEE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVERLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS START TO PUSH OFF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH WITH RHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30'S. THIS WILL BRING BORDERLINE
RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. DURING THE WEEKEND WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY BRINING RHS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
WITH NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 64 84 66 86 / 0 0 0 20
FMY 62 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 30
GIF 62 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 20
SRQ 62 83 66 86 / 0 0 0 20
BKV 56 85 59 87 / 0 0 0 20
SPG 68 81 68 83 / 0 0 0 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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