542
FXUS62 KTBW 281218
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
818 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. DRY AIR/LOW DEW POINTS, WHICH HAVE BEEN
OVER THE AREA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, WILL CONTINUE FOR ONE MORE
DAY. HOWEVER...FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DEW POINT RECOVERY/INCREASING
L/L MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN A BIT TODAY CREATING WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH...AND COMBINED
WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF LESS THAN 35
PERCENT, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEVY AND
HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. RH'S IN HIGHLANDS COUNTY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, AND WINDS IN LEVY COUNTY WILL LIKELY
NOT REACH THE THRESHOLD OF SUSTAINED >15 MPH.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY: AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL BEGIN SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE
AREA WITH PCPW VALUES CLIMBING NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. LARGE
SCALE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL AID IN
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
MONDAY, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL
CREATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO
ONSHORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT U/L PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SERIES OF U/L
DISTURBANCES RIDING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW. THE LEAD S/W
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT, AND STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW. THE
MAIN U/L ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING OUT AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE
NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 817 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SCEC CONDITIONS ON
MUCH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE
BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AS WAS MENTIONED IN THE MAIN DISCUSSION, COMBINATION OF DRY AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING/WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ABOVE 15 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
CREATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHLANDS AND LEVY COUNTIES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RECOVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 66 86 70 / 0 0 20 40
FMY 85 65 86 69 / 0 0 40 40
GIF 83 64 86 68 / 0 0 20 40
SRQ 84 64 87 69 / 0 0 30 40
BKV 85 60 88 64 / 0 0 20 40
SPG 81 68 83 70 / 0 0 30 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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