889
FXUS62 KTBW 281747
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
147 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WE ARE SEEING A VERY DRY, WINDY AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS
WILL BE TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80'S THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER RHS
AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAS ALSO CAUSED US TO ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL CALM DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY BUT TROPICAL MOISTURE
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE. ALONG WITH THE TROUGH WE WILL SEE PWS AROUND 1.5 AS THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THROUGH US IN THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME
INSTABILITY STILL REMAINING IN NORTH FLORIDA WILL BRING A SEVERE
WEATHER RISK FOR LEVY COUNTY. WE WILL SEE SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BRING SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 DEGREES
IN THE INTERIOR BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TOPPING OUT AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE LAND THAT WILL START
TO PUSH OFF THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY
WITH CRITICAL RHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RH WILL GO UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SHIFT US TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA BEFORE WE START TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. |
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 66 84 70 85 / 0 20 40 60
FMY 65 85 69 87 / 0 40 30 60
GIF 64 85 67 85 / 0 10 30 90
SRQ 64 82 69 85 / 0 30 40 50
BKV 60 86 64 87 / 0 10 30 70
SPG 68 81 70 82 / 0 20 40 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND
CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...GIARRATANA
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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