732
FXUS62 KTBW 290645
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH
PCPW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN U/L DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TODAY, SPREADING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L DISTURBANCE
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED OVER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST L/L CONVERGENCE INLAND.
THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A SIGNIFICANT U/L
PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF U/L
DISTURBANCE RIDING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW NEXT WEEK.
THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY NIGHT, AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW. THIS WILL
INITIALLY BE A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE U/L
SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND...BUT THE LINE MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF U/L DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TODAY WITH SCT040 AND
SCT-BKN250. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY VCNTY PGD/RSW/FMY WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
AROUND SUNSET, AREAS OF VFR CIGS 035-040 WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WINDS WILL BE BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY, BUT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATER AROUND SUNSET AS AN EVENING
EASTERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN L/L MOISTURE TODAY, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 70 84 71 / 20 30 50 30
FMY 87 69 87 69 / 50 30 50 20
GIF 86 67 85 68 / 20 40 80 40
SRQ 87 69 85 69 / 30 30 40 20
BKV 88 64 86 64 / 10 30 60 30
SPG 82 70 82 70 / 30 30 50 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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