464
FXUS62 KTBW 291156
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
756 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
RETURNING MOISTURE IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING, WITH A MORE HUMID START
TO THE DAY. MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE SAME THEME
ALOFT AS WELL, WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE STREAMING OVER
THE PENINSULA. INDEED, LOCATIONS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD
TO THE NATURE COAST WILL MOST CERTAINLY NOTICE THE CLOUDIER SKIES
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A WAYS TO GO YET TO SUSTAIN
CONVECTION. SATELLITE-DERIVED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
CURRENTLY SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER AN INCH ACROSS THE STATE.
ADDITIONALLY, EARLY 12Z SOUNDING DATA HAS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT IN
THE 800MB TO 600MB LAYER. THAT WILL NEED TO ERODE YET BEFORE
CONVECTION WOULD BE SUSTAINED.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS WILL STILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM A
SUMMERTIME DAY, PARTICULARLY IN SWFL. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS OUT
OF THE ESE, WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR A WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, IT WILL TRY. ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHERE THIS TAKES PLACE. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP AND
FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SOME STORMS COULD POP UP ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. WHILE THERE IS ONLY A 50% CHANCE OF STORMS TODAY, THE
PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING WITH STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IS OVER 60%
IN SWFL. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA, FORCING LOOKS
WEAKER, CONSIDERING THE LATER TIMING. WHILE THE OVERALL
PROBABILITY IS STILL AROUND 50%, THE PROBABILITY OF LIGHTNING IS
MUCH LOWER, ONLY AROUND 10% TO 20%.
THUS, THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TO
ADD MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SWFL, WHILE KEEPING ONLY SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTH. SOME RELATIVELY MINOR SPATIAL AND
TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE AS WELL. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RETURN TODAY AND CLOUDS AND WINDS INCREASE,
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN SWFL, AND SPREADING FARTHER NORTH LATER INTO
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A ROUGHLY 50% PROBABILITY OF
STORM OCCURRENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION, WITH TAFS REFLECTING MOST
LIKELY TIME-FRAMES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SWFL WHERE THE
TIMING IS MOST FAVORED. WHILE IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LESS LIKELY FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA DUE TO THE LATER START.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS. CHANCES DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH
PCPW VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY,
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. AN U/L DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. INCREASING
CLOUDINESS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE REGION. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TODAY, SPREADING
OVER THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE U/L DISTURBANCE
BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED OVER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY
FLOW WHICH WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF STRONGEST L/L CONVERGENCE INLAND.
THE U/L DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A SIGNIFICANT U/L
PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF U/L
DISTURBANCE RIDING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW NEXT WEEK.
THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY NIGHT, AND STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW. THIS WILL
INITIALLY BE A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE U/L
SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND...BUT THE LINE MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
STRONG STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COUPLE OF U/L DISTURBANCES
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WINDS WILL BE BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS TODAY, BUT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATER AROUND SUNSET AS AN EVENING
EASTERLY SURGE DEVELOPS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN L/L MOISTURE TODAY, MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 70 84 71 / 30 50 50 30
FMY 87 69 87 69 / 50 50 50 20
GIF 86 67 85 68 / 20 50 80 40
SRQ 87 69 85 69 / 40 50 40 20
BKV 88 64 86 64 / 20 40 60 30
SPG 82 70 82 70 / 30 50 50 30
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW
DECISION SUPPORT...TBW
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW
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