129
FXUS62 KTBW 300005
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND LIFTED NORTHWARD UNDER
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING,
ALMOST ALL OF THE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS NOW CEASED, BUT SHOWERS
ARE CONTINUING TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE TAMPA BAY AND
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CONVECTION FURTHER
WEAKENS.
OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUING TO DRIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE TO THE
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR TRENDS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING, AND AREAS OF SHOWERS ARE CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TAMPA BAY AREA TAFS SITES EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT
ALMOST ALL OF THE LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH AREA
TERMINALS WILL STILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL DISRUPTIONS AS SHOWERS
PASS THROUGH. DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SOME MVFR, OR
PERHAPS PATCHY IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE LIFTING OUT BY
AROUND 14Z. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, BUT ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE CHANCE OF SEEING SHOWERS
OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON, AN EASTERLY WIND
SURGE IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ONCE THE SEA BREEZE FADES AWAY.
THIS MAY ALLOW A SHORT PERIOD WHERE SEAS INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
BEFORE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS INLAND FOR DAYTIME HOURS. WEATHER
FOR THE WORK WEEK GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET ACROSS COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 70 84 70 85 / 50 50 30 10
FMY 69 86 69 87 / 60 50 20 10
GIF 67 83 68 88 / 50 60 30 20
SRQ 69 85 68 84 / 50 40 20 0
BKV 64 84 64 87 / 40 60 30 10
SPG 70 82 70 81 / 50 40 30 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE...FLANNERY
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