191
FXUS62 KTBW 301137
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING, LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVER THE NATURE COAST ALONG AN AXIS OF ENHANCED
INSTABILITY, AIDED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
STATE. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS NOW
AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS, AND EARLY 12Z SOUNDING
DATA SUPPORTS THE SAME CONCLUSION IN THE LOWEST COUPLE
KILOMETERS. THERE IS STILL A SMALLER DRY SLOT, BUT THIS HAS ERODED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARDS AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON, AS DAYTIME
HEATING INCREASES SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, AND THE SEA BREEZE
PROVIDES THE NECESSARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS TO INITIATE.
CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THIS COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK) IS IN PLACE FOR TODAY.
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. ATMOSPHERE OVER WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA IS UNSTABLE WAITING A TRIGGER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP...AND THE DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL LIFT NECESSARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE,
AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BEST U/L SUPPORT TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WHERE
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING OCCURS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ONSHORE, FAIRLY STRONG L/L CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR WHICH WILL BE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE 30/00Z TBW
INDICATED A MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, THIS SHOULD ERODE
TODAY AS THE U/L ENERGY MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE SOUNDING ALSO
INDICATES RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING
IN THE MID LEVELS AND THE MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. FOR THIS REASON,
SPC HAS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR PENINSULA IN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES,
BUT CONTINUED WARM AND RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WITH
CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WITH VERY WARM
HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A SIGNIFICANT U/L PATTERN CHANGE
WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF U/L DISTURBANCES
RIDING QUICKLY THROUGH THE FLOW DURING THE WEEK.
THE LEAD S/W DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L
FLOW. THIS WILL INITIALLY BE A POTENT SYSTEM WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE U/L SUPPORT WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES NORTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND...BUT THE LINE MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SPC
CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY, AND WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF U/L DISTURBANCES PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM
THE COAST CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AS MOST OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH, AWAY FROM
TAF SITES, OVERALL IMPACTS THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW. THIS AFTERNOON,
THE SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH NEW THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PUSHING INLAND. THERE IS A SHORT
WINDOW WHERE VCTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TPA, BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH KLAL BEING THE MAIN TAF SITE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PRESENT, BUT GENERALLY SHOULD BE NORTH
OF EAST OF MOST TAF SITES. ADDITIONALLY, SOME EARLY MORNING BCFG IS
POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS, BUT
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 84 71 84 72 / 60 30 10 10
FMY 86 69 87 70 / 40 20 10 0
GIF 84 69 89 69 / 80 40 20 10
SRQ 84 69 83 70 / 40 20 0 10
BKV 84 64 87 65 / 70 30 10 20
SPG 81 71 81 72 / 40 30 0 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OGLESBY
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