415
FXUS62 KTBW 301821
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
SHORT TERM
(REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST,
WITH HEALTHY 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION IS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA, MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ADDITIONAL CELLS HAVE BEGUN POPPING UP JUST NORTH OF TAMPA ALONG I-
75 AS DAYTIME HEATING APPROACHES THE PEAK. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS JUST BECOMING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SOME COASTAL
OBSERVATIONS, AFTER BEING SLOW TO FORM WITH A BREEZE ESE FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WITH THE SEA BREEZE
PROPAGATING INLAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WEST COAST TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAMPA AND SWFL METROS WILL DECREASE. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
FLORIDA.
THE SETUP IS COMPLEX FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, ENHANCING
MID-LEVEL VERTICAL ASCENT AND ERODING THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
AXIS THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THIS HAS
DRIVEN THE STRONGER SURFACE FLOW THAT HAS BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, SOME WEAKENING IN THE WINDS IS LIKELY AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND.
FROM A SEVERE WEATHER SETUP, TODAY IS A CLASSIC MARCH SETUP WITH
SUFFICIENT FORCING, SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, AND WEAK, BUT INCREASING
SHEAR ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THUS, STRONG DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SOME HAIL, AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE ALL HAZARDS THAT ARE ON THE TABLE TODAY.
THUNDERSTORMS NEED TO GROW TO SUFFICIENT DEPTH TO TAP INTO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER. GENERALLY, CORES ABOVE 30KFT WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RATHER PROLIFIC LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
CORES IN THE 35KFT+ RANGE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL OF 1
INCH OR GREATER AND STRONGER, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS
THAT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AS WELL.
ONCE THE SUN SETS, MUCH OF THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS
WILL FADE. THUS, MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN.
HOWEVER, A FEW LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR A TIME WITH JUST
ENOUGH OF A BOOST FROM THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
LAGGING JUST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IS ANOTHER TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE TOMORROW
NIGHT. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NATURE COAST.
HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH HAS A SHALLOW AMPLITUDE AND IS ALREADY LIFTING
BACK NORTH. THUS, THE CORE OF THE ENERGY WILL DO THE SAME. WHILE
AN ISOLATED STORM MAY POSE A SEVERE THREAT, THE OVERALL RISK IS
LOW, WITH ONLY A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) THREAT TOMORROW NIGHT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FEW STORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE TAMPA BAY
REGION LATE, BUT THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALMOST ZERO
GIVEN HOW FAR REMOVED THEY WILL BE FROM THE CORE ENERGY AND THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY.
AFTER TUESDAY, STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN. WHILE A LITTLE BIT OF
LINGERING MOISTURE TUESDAY COULD ALLOW A COUPLE ISOLATED STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE, THE OVERALL SETUP WILL BE WARM AND STABLE.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED BEFORE A WEEK FROM
MONDAY. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, REACHING INTO THE
90S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE "DRY", A LOW-LEVEL ESE FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE, FAVORING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. IT WILL FEEL VERY MUCH LIKE
SUMMER IN RESPONSE, WITH A NUMBER OF WARM, HUMID DAYS AHEAD OF US.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUSTAINS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE NOW FORMED AND MOVING INLAND, THE THREAT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL LARGELY FADE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. HOWEVER, INLAND TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A THREAT FOR
IMPACTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET AND
INSTABILITY WANES, THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL PASS. HOWEVER, THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THAT LINGERS COULD PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG
TOWARDS TOMORROW MORNING. THE SETUP IS NOT PERFECT FOR THIS, THOUGH,
SO IMPACTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE RATHER LIMITED FOR NOW. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. QUIETER
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, A COUPLE
ADDITIONAL STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT TAF SITES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WHAT HAS BEEN A GUSTY ESE FLOW AT TIMES IS BEGINNING TO TURN ONSHORE
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD WORK INTO COASTAL
WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS OVERALL LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS. QUIETER WEATHER
WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO
CONTROL, WITH AN ESE FLOW PREVAILING, BUT TURNING ONSHORE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSIONS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FAVORS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE STORMS TOMORROW
NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A
WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN. HOWEVER, HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN, KEEPING RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 84 71 86 / 30 0 10 10
FMY 69 87 70 88 / 20 10 10 10
GIF 68 88 69 90 / 50 20 10 20
SRQ 70 84 70 84 / 20 0 10 10
BKV 64 87 66 87 / 30 10 20 10
SPG 71 81 71 83 / 30 0 10 10
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLANNERY
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