813
FXUS62 KTBW 311328
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
BUT EXPECT THE FOG WILL LIFT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATEST CAMS, SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DUE
TO THIS, CONTINUED WITH POPS AROUND 20% LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE NATURE COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON THE WARM SIDE CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S, A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG, WITH PATCHY FOG ON LAND, WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW
SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
AND MOVE EAST. AT THE SAME TIME THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH WILL BE WEAKENING AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DOESN'T LOOK TO HIGH AS THE
FLOW WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANY
THREAT LOOKS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES PAST THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT TO THE NORTH WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUING TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A STRAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ONCE AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, A LARGER AND STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETUP WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SOME DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION, BUT ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 OVER INLAND AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM LIFR TO VFR. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. WINDS TODAY
SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES AGAIN
TONIGHT BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG THIS
MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL WASHOUT TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BY MIDWEEK SETTING UP A SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAKENING
COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHERN NATURE COAST. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE RATHER HIGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, A WARM
AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL SETUP WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH ENOUGH TO
KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 71 86 72 / 0 10 0 0
FMY 87 69 89 71 / 10 0 10 0
GIF 89 69 91 71 / 20 10 20 10
SRQ 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 87 65 87 64 / 0 10 10 0
SPG 82 71 83 71 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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