113
FXUS62 KTBW 311740
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH MANY LOCATIONS
ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. THE
WEATHER IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE TO THE NORTH WITH NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WARNINGS ACROSS AL/GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS RACING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM CITRUS COUNTY NORTHWARDS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE, SUGGESTS THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW MODELS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL. FOR NOW, HAVE CONTINUED
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20% AND THINK THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS RATHER LOW. FURTHER SOUTH, EXPECT FOG WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE.
THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER ACTIVITY MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL STALL LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM AND HUMID
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE A SUMMER.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID-WEEK ON. WITH UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASING AND SUNNY SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB QUICKLY EACH DAY. IN FACT, HIGHS WILL BE NEAR
RECORD VALUES MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MANY LOCATIONS RISING INTO THE
LOW 90S. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS IS
WHEN OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT WILL BE THE RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE 08-14Z TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN ALL OF THE TAFS EXCEPT
FOR RSW AND FMY. FOG AND CEILINGS WILL LIFT AFTER 14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF, LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS OF SEA FOG
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ONLY AROUND 20% OR SO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MIDWEEK SETTING UP A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AT AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOISTURE REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE
TO SEE A SHOWERS/STORM ACROSS THE NATURE COAST OR THE INTERIOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 20%. WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE, FOG DEVELOPED IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 71 86 72 / 0 0 10 0
FMY 87 70 89 71 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 89 68 90 71 / 20 0 10 10
SRQ 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 87 65 87 64 / 0 10 10 0
SPG 82 71 82 72 / 0 0 10 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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