667
FXUS62 KTBW 051807
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE I4 CORRIDOR WILL
ACT AS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN LIMITING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY, MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP PUSH MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INLAND AND FURTHER EAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
FURTHER INLAND WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE
PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STEER THE
WEATHER PATTERNS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THIS PERIOD PUSHING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
BRING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, BRINING WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR TODAY. SOME LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, HOWEVER THESE WILL LIKELY BE
FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WILL ALSO LIKELY STAY EAST OF TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONG WINDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGHOUT WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 90 75 89 / 0 20 10 40
FMY 71 90 73 90 / 10 40 10 30
GIF 69 91 73 91 / 20 40 10 60
SRQ 69 87 72 88 / 0 20 10 30
BKV 62 91 66 90 / 0 20 0 50
SPG 74 87 75 87 / 0 20 10 40
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
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