443
FXUS62 KTBW 052346
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
UPPER OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES OVER THE U.S. AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR PLOTS. AT THE SURFACE, THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS C FL AND INTO THE C GULF WITH POCKET OF
UNSTABLE AIR OVER E AND SE FL PENINSULA THAT COMBINED WITH THE
ATLANTIC SEABREEZE TO PRODUCE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON THAT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION HAS BACK BUILT OVER THE LAKE WALES
RIDGE IN E HIGHLANDS AND SE POLK COUNTIES. LATEST GRIDS AND
FORECASTS ON TRACK.
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FIELD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN INLAND
AREAS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUE WITH AFTERNOON VCTS MAINLY INLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
A STALLED BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE I4 CORRIDOR WILL
ACT AS A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN LIMITING
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NATURE COAST. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY, MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP PUSH MOST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
INLAND AND FURTHER EAST. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
FURTHER INLAND WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE
PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TOMORROW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY REMAINS
STALLED.
MEANWHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL STEER THE
WEATHER PATTERNS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST BEING AN UPPER LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY DURING
THIS PERIOD PUSHING RAIN CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
BRING DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA, BRINING WIDESPREAD RAIN/STORM
CHANCES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND
SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP
UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME STRONG WINDS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
ENOUGH MOISTURE THROUGHOUT WILL KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 72 90 75 89 / 0 20 10 40
FMY 71 90 73 90 / 10 40 10 30
GIF 69 91 73 91 / 20 40 10 60
SRQ 69 87 72 88 / 0 20 10 30
BKV 62 91 66 90 / 0 20 0 50
SPG 74 87 75 87 / 0 20 10 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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