156
FXUS62 KTBW 060857
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
457 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A DIFFUSE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING, OVERSPREAD BY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND RIDGING EXTENDING W-E ACROSS
THE S GULF AND FL STRAITS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. EXPANDING TO THE
CONUS VIEW, ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE SW U.S., AND
BOTH UPPER LOWS ARE FLANKED BY RIDGING ON THEIR OPPOSITE
PERIPHERIES, ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
COASTS.
OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF
AND FL PENINSULA, WHILE THE E U.S. CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS
N/E INTO THE WESTERLIES LEAVING RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY. THE SW U.S. CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY LUMBERS EAST INTO
THE C U.S. WHILE OPENING UP AND PARTIALLY PHASING WITH THE
RESIDUAL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY TROUGHING. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC
RIDGE BUILDS N/E ACROSS THE W U.S. AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY, FORCING THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO AN
ELONGATED SW-NE ORIENTATION EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
NE U.S. BY THU-FRI. LOCAL CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AM
HOURS GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS THE E/W FL SEA
BREEZES COLLIDE, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
BEYOND 72 HOURS AND INTO THE FRI-SUN PERIOD, THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE TROUGH SPLITS FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE NORTHEAST, AND CUTS OFF WHILE SINKING SOUTH OVER THE NRN GULF
COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE W/C U.S. RIDGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
NOTABLY WETTER PATTERN LOCALLY DURING THE SAT-MON PERIOD AS
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE STATE WITHIN DEEP LAYER SW
FLOW THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT TO
THE WEST ALONG THE NRN GULF, AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW ATOP THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE NRN GULF LIKELY SPAWNING ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THAT THEN PUSH N/E ACROSS THE N GULF/SE U.S. AND FL
PENINSULA.
GIVEN THE SETUP, MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PW VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES OVER THE SAT-MON PERIOD, WITH DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND A
NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REFLECTING VALUES 1.5-2
INCHES. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS, LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE, WITH
ADDITIONAL FORECAST REFINEMENT AS THE TIMEFRAME APPROACHES AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FOR NOW, WPC HAS PLACED THE NATURE COAST AND
WCFL AREAS GENERALLY FROM ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SAT, HIGHLIGHTING
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS DESPITE MUCH OF AREA EXPERIENCING
MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. CONDITIONS ARE SLATED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
IMPROVE EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, AS THE CUT OFF LOW BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT N/E TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FIELD
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...
WILL MONITOR FOR ANY SHORT TERM AMDS IF NECESSARY BUT FOR NOW NO
INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE BASED ON LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE TO WARRANT
MENTION THIS CYCLE. INTERIOR CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS, HOWEVER LAL AND SWFL
TERMINALS MAY REQUIRE MENTION IF TREND TOWARD MORE WESTERLY
PROPAGATION DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE OUT
OF THE SE-SW DURING THE MORNING, BECOME W DURING THE AFTERNOON
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, THEN DIMINISH TO LIGHT E/SE DURING THE
EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KNOTS REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, TURNING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE SETTLES WEST
OF THE LOCAL WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND ASSOCIATED LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 445 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
NO FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS. INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 76 90 75 / 20 10 50 20
FMY 91 73 92 72 / 40 30 40 20
GIF 92 72 92 72 / 60 30 60 20
SRQ 88 72 89 72 / 20 20 40 20
BKV 92 67 91 67 / 20 10 60 20
SPG 88 76 87 76 / 10 20 40 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HURT
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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