293
FXUS62 KTBW 061748
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER FL, MAINTAINING A SW
FLOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND FURTHER EAST. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH LOW MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FAVORING HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. A SIMILAR SETUP IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL MOVES OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG E/W SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ALONG THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
CONVECTION SHOULD STAY EAST OF MOST TERMINALS, EXCLUDING LAL, WHICH
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. CONDITIONS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN QUIET INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE NORTH AND WEST THAN TODAY IMPACTING TPA, PIE AND LAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MARINE HAZARDS REMAIN LIMITED TODAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 89 75 88 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 30
GIF 72 89 72 89 / 40 70 20 70
SRQ 72 88 72 87 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 67 89 67 89 / 10 60 20 60
SPG 75 87 76 86 / 20 40 20 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
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