562
FXUS62 KTBW 062354
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
754 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW
STRONG OVER INTERIOR ZONES WITH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM NIGHT AHEAD. LATEST GRIDS AND
FORECASTS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF SHRA/TSRA
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHERN AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA
BEFORE WANING LATER THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SEABREEZE DAY WED WITH LATE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA
MAINLY INLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED OVER FL, MAINTAINING A SW
FLOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED INLAND AND FURTHER EAST. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO INSTABILITY, COUPLED WITH LOW MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES FAVORING HAIL DEVELOPMENT AND STRONG WINDS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS EVENING AND DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. A SIMILAR SETUP IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PUSHED A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL MOVES OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG E/W SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ALONG THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
MARINE HAZARDS REMAIN LIMITED TODAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT
TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE EACH DAY AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 89 75 88 / 20 50 20 50
FMY 72 90 73 90 / 20 30 20 30
GIF 72 89 72 89 / 40 70 20 70
SRQ 72 88 72 87 / 20 30 20 40
BKV 67 89 67 89 / 10 60 20 60
SPG 75 87 76 86 / 20 40 20 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...GIARRATANA
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