889
FXUS62 KTBW 071108
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
708 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, STARTING
NEAR KTPA EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTING INLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KLAL AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, WITH A
QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT OVER S FL WITH WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PENINSULA
THIS MORNING, WITH SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING
OVER THE STATE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. COMPLEX
PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LOW ALOFT
CUTS OFF OVER THE SRN U.S. AND SETTLES NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST
ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE UPPING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.
WHILE MOST OF THE PENINSULA CONTINUES UNDER SOME DEGREE OF
DROUGHT, FLOODING CONCERNS MAY ARISE GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
MID WEEK, THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT N/E OUT OF THE
REGION FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
TODAY THROUGH FRI WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS, INITIATING AND PROPAGATING ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT, WITH THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
LESSER RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE TODAY'S CONVECTION
WILL POSE A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT ON THU (-10 TO -11C AT 500MB) WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS IN ADDITION TO
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE NATURE
COAST AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-4 UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THU, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY WITH FRI'S STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE WEST, WITH DEEP LAYER W/SW FLOW OVER THE
AREA AND A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST
FOCUSING MOISTURE OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF ENHANCING THE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN/SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. WPC
HAS HIGHLIGHTED PARTS OF THE NORTH/CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (1/5) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SAT-SUN FOR
POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS. PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE GUIDANCE SIGNALS SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BEGIN INTO MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT N/E AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR
LIKELY TODAY THROUGH FRI BEFORE DROPPING INTO THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. TEMPS COOL FURTHER INTO THE MID 80S EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE LIKELY WARMING AGAIN AROUND MID WEEK AS SUNSHINE
RETURNS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
AND ASSOCIATED LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 7 2025
AMPLE MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS LIMITING FIRE
CONCERNS. INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 76 90 75 / 50 20 40 30
FMY 91 73 91 73 / 40 20 20 20
GIF 91 72 92 71 / 70 40 70 30
SRQ 88 73 88 72 / 40 20 30 20
BKV 90 67 91 66 / 60 20 60 30
SPG 87 76 88 75 / 40 20 30 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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