755
FXUS62 KTBW 081333
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 915 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
12Z TAMPA SOUNDING INDICATES FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE
COLUMN WITH PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES AND COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS WITH H5
VALUES AT -10.5C. LIGHT ESE SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
HIGHEST MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, CONTINUING INTO POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THROUGH MID EVENING. SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS
UPDATED TO INCLUDE POLK AND HIGHLANDS WHERE A STORM OR TWO MAY
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND THE RISK FOR HAIL FROM 3 PM TO 7 PM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
VERY DYNAMIC PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTH AND FLORIDA. THIS COULD PUT A
SIGNIFICANT DENT INTO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
AN U/L LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ENHANCE THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY, A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS EAST/WEST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
ONSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. VERY SIMILAR SET-UP FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR.
ON SATURDAY, DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE REGION. AGAIN, THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN NATURE COAST, THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, THERE WILL
BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NATURE COAST...AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
FLOODING THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG U/L LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
STRENGTHENING U/L DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/POSSIBLE TRAINING OF
CELLS FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NORTH. FOR THIS REASON,
THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS
THAN 15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA AND NORTH REGARDLESS OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
POPS WILL BE HIGH ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE U/L LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH WITH A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY PUSHING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
VERY DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
ADVECT PCPW VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE OVER THE REGION.
STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AGAIN,
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA AND NORTH WHERE WPC HAS ANALYZED A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING (AT LEAST 15% BUT LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE)...WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT'S IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, CAN'T RULE OUT THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
OVERALL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL START TO POP UP THIS AFTERNOON, STARTING
NEAR THE COAST EARLIER IN THE DAY, THEN SHIFTING INLAND. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE FOR KLAL AND HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, WITH A
QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD EXPECTED.
FROM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MAIN HAZARD TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OVER
THE WEEKEND, AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS WEST OF THE WATERS, WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
WINDS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
TO SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 89 75 / 40 20 40 40
FMY 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 40 20
GIF 91 71 90 72 / 70 40 70 40
SRQ 87 72 87 73 / 30 20 40 40
BKV 89 66 89 67 / 60 30 50 50
SPG 86 76 85 76 / 30 20 40 50
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE...VOLKMER
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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