580
FXUS62 KTBW 081804
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
204 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
CURRENT-TONIGHT...AN EARLY SEASON SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR. HREF
GUIDANCE REMAINS ENTHUSIASTIC WITH RESPECT TO STORM COVERAGE,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA (POLK/HIGHLANDS)
WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO
MERGE. MEANWHILE, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST AT
LEAST SOME STRONG STORM POTENTIAL, AND A SEVERE THREAT IN ONE OR
TWO STORMS, WHERE RIGOROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE. SPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL, AT LEAST A 5% CHANCE, THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL IN THESE AREAS. WEST-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH
THE COLUMN WILL CARRY CONVECTION TOWARD THE EAST COAST AFTER
SUNSET. MILD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT, A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY MAY.
FRI-SAT...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CANADA
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MORPH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE IT WILL MEANDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL FEED DEEP
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL PULSES OF ENERGY ALONG ITS EASTERN FLANK,
SUPPORTING HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE HUNG UP
OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY SUPPORT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON FRIDAY (AND TO SOME EXTENT SATURDAY)
WILL STILL REMAIN HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON SURFACE-BASED DIURNAL
INSTABILITY, LOCAL MOISTURE LEVELS (THOUGH INCREASING), SEA-BREEZE
DRIVEN INTERACTIONS. THUS, THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE INTERIOR FOR FRIDAY, AND INCREASE BY ABOUT 20-30% AREAWIDE ON
SATURDAY.
SUN-WED (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRONG U/L LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRENGTHENING U/L DYNAMICS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, THERE'S A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE) FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NORTH REGARDLESS OF
THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, POPS WILL BE HIGH ACROSS ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE U/L LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH WITH A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC
BOUNDARY PUSHING VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
VERY DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
ADVECT PCPW VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE OVER THE REGION.
STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AGAIN,
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA AND NORTH WHERE WPC HAS ANALYZED A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING (AT LEAST 15% BUT LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE)...WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT'S IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, CAN'T RULE OUT THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
OVERALL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING AS THE
WEST COAST BREEZE PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL BE AT KLAL. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA THERE FROM 19Z-23Z.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT THU MAY 8 2025
MAIN HAZARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPS WEST OF THE WATERS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION TO SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 89 75 87 / 30 40 40 70
FMY 73 90 73 90 / 20 40 20 60
GIF 71 90 72 88 / 50 70 40 70
SRQ 72 87 73 87 / 30 40 40 70
BKV 66 89 67 87 / 30 50 50 80
SPG 76 85 76 85 / 30 40 50 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
ULRICH/SCHAPER/VOLKMER
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