163
FXUS62 KTBW 090700
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SIMILAR DYNAMIC PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS
YESTERDAY AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NATURE COAST DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COLD SIDE WITH
50T AROUND -11C TO -12C WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR LARGE HAIL TO DEVELOP WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS/STORMS. MID
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALSO CREATE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS. FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR
PENINSULA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OVER EXTREME EASTERN POLK COUNTY.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON FRIDAY.
AT UPPER LEVELS, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CUT-OFF OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH WILL AID IN ADVECTING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN, THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHERN NATURE COAST, THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
DEVELOP WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN 15% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE
COAST...AS ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO FLOODING IN
THAT REGION THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WHERE SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST.
ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG U/L LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRENGTHENING
U/L DYNAMICS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS FROM
ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NORTH. FOR THIS REASON, THERE'S A
MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN 15%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
AND NORTH REGARDLESS OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, POPS
WILL BE HIGH ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MONDAY WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING. THE U/L LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTH WITH A STRONG NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY
ADVECT PCPW VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE OVER THE REGION.
STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE COMBINED WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AGAIN,
TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA AND NORTH WHERE WPC HAS ANALYZED A SLIGHT RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING (AT LEAST 15% BUT LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE)...WITH A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% BUT LESS THAN
15% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE) ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH IT'S IN THE EXTENDED
RANGE, CAN'T RULE OUT THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AS THERE WILL BE STRONG
OVERALL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR
VSBYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IMPACTING LAL, HOWEVER THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE AIRPORT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
MAIN HAZARD TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. A SURFACE
WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE FURTHER ON MONDAY
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION TO SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 76 88 76 / 50 20 70 60
FMY 90 73 90 74 / 30 10 40 40
GIF 90 72 89 73 / 70 30 70 50
SRQ 87 73 88 74 / 40 20 60 60
BKV 89 68 88 68 / 50 20 80 60
SPG 86 76 86 76 / 50 20 70 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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