710
FXUS62 KTBW 091331
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
931 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS GA/AL/MS TO AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR LA. OVER FLORIDA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS RIDGES WEST OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY.
THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH A PWAT OF 1.51
INCHES, DEEP SW-W FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND COOL 500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -12C. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL FAVOR AN ONSHORE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SET UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. I MADE SOME CHANGES TO POPS
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
GUIDANCE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING BECOMING SW
AROUND 8-12 KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY
IMPACT LAL BETWEEN 20-03Z, SO WILL HOLD VCTS AT LAL DURING THAT
TIME. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10-15
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING A VERY WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH EVEN HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING
ALLOWING FOR CLEARING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 88 76 88 76 / 20 20 70 60
FMY 90 73 90 74 / 20 10 40 40
GIF 90 72 89 73 / 60 30 70 50
SRQ 87 73 88 74 / 10 20 60 60
BKV 89 68 88 68 / 20 20 80 60
SPG 86 76 86 76 / 10 20 70 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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