945
FXUS62 KTBW 101134
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASHORE NEAR
THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z, SO WILL HOLD VCSH AND VCTS AT ALL SITES
AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME RAIN-FREE PERIODS, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED EARLY MORNING, THEN BECOMING SW AROUND 8-13 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS RETURN AFTER SUNSET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS STALLED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL STAY THERE SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO OUR FLOW
HAS BEEN SOUTHWESTERLY AND HAS BROUGHT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WITH PWS ABOVE 1.5. WE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY SEEING A VERY
GOOD LAND BREEZE INTERACTION OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS FIRING OFF IN
THE GULF. THESE ARE ALL GOOD INDICATIONS THAT WE WILL SEE A VERY
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM EVENT. LOOKING
AT OUR SEABREEZE REGIME, THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PUTS US
IN A FIVE. THAT REGIME BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT THE 500MB HEIGHTS WE ARE STILL HOVERING
AROUND -10. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH OUR MAIN CONCERN BEING HAIL.
AS WE GET INTO OUR SUNDAY THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN
MISSISSIPPI WILL SLOWLY GET CLOSER TO THE STATE. THIS WILL JUST
INCREASE OUR MOISTURE EVEN MORE WITH PW NEARING 2 INCHES. THIS WILL
JUST HELP TO INCREASE OUR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER, OUR WETTEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING OVERCAST
SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL START
TO MOVE AWAY ON TUESDAY BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL LINGER HELPING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
PW WILL FINALLY START TO DROP NEAR 1 BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
START TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL HELP TO BRING DRIER BUT WARMER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID 90S INLAND BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL BRINGING US
SOME UNSETTLE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY
OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. THE
FRONT ITSELF WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT WEST AND CALM DOWN AS WE GET
INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 74 89 75 / 60 40 80 90
FMY 89 73 91 74 / 50 30 60 70
GIF 88 72 89 73 / 60 40 80 80
SRQ 85 74 89 72 / 50 40 80 90
BKV 87 71 88 69 / 60 40 90 90
SPG 84 76 87 74 / 60 40 80 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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