442
FXUS62 KTBW 101317
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
917 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
WE HAVE SEEN SOME MODERATELY STRONG STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE NATURE COAST IN LEVY
COUNTY. THE CEDAR KEY BUOY REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 45
MPH AS ONE OF THE STORMS CAME ASHORE AROUND 8 AM. RADAR CONTINUES TO
SHOW STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AND MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS TREND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY. THEREFORE, I HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE POPS THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO BETTER ALIGN WITH LATEST RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS IN PASSING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASHORE
NEAR THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z, SO WILL HOLD VCSH AND VCTS AT ALL
SITES AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME RAIN-FREE PERIODS, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SE WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS EXPECTED EARLY MORNING, THEN BECOMING SW AROUND 8-13
KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS RETURN
AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 914 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
BRING A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOME MODERATELY STRONG STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STORMS AND
SHOWERS FIRING UP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 74 89 75 / 40 40 80 90
FMY 89 73 91 74 / 30 30 60 70
GIF 88 72 89 73 / 70 40 80 80
SRQ 85 74 89 72 / 40 40 80 90
BKV 87 71 88 69 / 60 40 90 90
SPG 84 76 87 74 / 30 40 80 90
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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