123
FXUS62 KTBW 110048
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
848 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ACTIVE CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS AS
THE GULF SEABREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF UPPER ENERGY FROM THE GULF UPPER LOW TO PRODUCE MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WHILE MOST COASTAL AREAS FROM
TAMPA BAY INTO SW FL REMAINED FAIRLY DRY. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF RAINFALL AREA WIDE. LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS ON TRACK
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
MAINLY VFR BUT WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT SHRA AND ISOLD
TSRA AS RAIN HAS BEEN BEEN TAPERING OFF AND SHOULD WANE FURTHER BY
03Z WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS
EXPECTED AGAIN SUN MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AS SW WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW SITS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC, THEN TURNING WESTWARD AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST NEAR MS/AL. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. THE 12Z
MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PERSISTENT MOIST S-SW FLOW THROUGH THE
ENTIRE COLUMN, WHICH HAS HELPED FUEL SOME MODERATELY STRONG STORMS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PWAT VALUES ON THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS DOWN
A BIT TO 1.24 INCHES, BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 -
1.8 INCHES LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
WE WILL HAVE A DUAL THREAT OF STORMS TODAY WITH STORMS ROLLING IN
OFF THE GULF AND ALSO SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS WELL FOR
THE INTERIOR TO INCLUDE PARTS OF CITRUS, HERNANDO, PASCO, SUMTER AND
POLK COUNTIES. NOT A LOT OF SYNOPTIC CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEATHER
FEATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND A SLIGHT RISK
IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST INCLUDING LEVY, CITRUS,
AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING EASTWARD CLOSER TO FLORIDA. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE PERSISTENT AND MOIST SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED LOW LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.8 - 2.0 INCHES. SOME
AREAS COULD SEE TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS,
WHICH COULD EQUATE TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A
MARGINAL RISK COVERING ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALSO COVERS ALL THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS FROM THE NATURE COAST SOUTHWARD
COVERING ALL OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TO
POLK AND NORTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOW
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT
EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
TODAY AND TUESDAY COULD BE AS HIGH AS 4-6 INCHES, AND SOME LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN SOME AREAS, WHICH WILL BE SOME WELCOME RELIEF TO
HARD HIT DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. THIS MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL ON TRACK TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
BRING A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SOME MODERATELY STRONG STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THIS MORNING PRODUCING SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 45
MPH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH STORMS AND
SHOWERS FIRING UP MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER FLORIDA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WETTEST DAY. NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 87 75 83 / 50 80 90 100
FMY 74 90 74 86 / 30 50 80 100
GIF 71 88 71 81 / 50 80 80 100
SRQ 74 88 73 82 / 50 70 90 100
BKV 68 88 68 83 / 60 90 90 100
SPG 76 87 75 82 / 50 80 100 100
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page