803
FXUS62 KTBW 110718
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
318 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF HAS BROUGHT
SOME DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING
HAIL. AS WE HEAD INTO OUR MONDAY THE FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING EARLY MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PW GO
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
BY TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN BUT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
STILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SETTLE BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BE ON A WARMING TREND AGAIN WITH HIGHS
INLAND BACK INTO THE MID 90'S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUST BETWEEN
20 TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THEN WILL COME BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
A FRONT IN THE GULF IS HELPING TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THAT MEANS WE WILL SEE SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BY MID TO LATE WEEK BUT
RH WILL STILL STAY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 72 83 74 / 90 90 100 40
FMY 88 73 86 73 / 70 70 100 80
GIF 86 71 82 70 / 90 80 100 60
SRQ 85 72 83 72 / 80 90 100 50
BKV 85 70 83 65 / 90 90 100 30
SPG 84 73 82 75 / 80 90 100 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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