830
FXUS62 KTBW 111212
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
812 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 811 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WE ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS AND VCSH AND
TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE WORST DAY WILL BE ON
MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MORE STEADY SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY SSE-SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, THEN DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE-SSW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN STARTING LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF HAS BROUGHT
SOME DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ONCE
AGAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING
HAIL. AS WE HEAD INTO OUR MONDAY THE FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO
PUSH THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING EARLY MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS PW GO
UP TO AROUND 2 INCHES.
BY TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN BUT SHOWER CHANCES WILL
STILL BE AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SETTLE BACK IN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BE ON A WARMING TREND AGAIN WITH HIGHS
INLAND BACK INTO THE MID 90'S BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
STICK AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THEN WILL COME BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 72 83 74 / 90 90 100 40
FMY 88 73 86 73 / 70 70 100 80
GIF 86 71 82 70 / 90 80 100 60
SRQ 85 72 83 72 / 80 90 100 50
BKV 85 70 83 65 / 90 90 100 30
SPG 84 73 82 75 / 80 90 100 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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