003
FXUS62 KTBW 111312
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
INCHING CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE WILL SEE A
FEW ROUNDS OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS, DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WATERS.
GUSTY SSE-SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO CURRENT FORECAST.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
THE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WE ARE EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS AND VCSH AND
TEMPO GROUPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR IN PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE WORST DAY WILL BE ON
MONDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MORE STEADY SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY SSE-SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, THEN DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE-SSW
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN STARTING LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH WILL BRING A VERY WET
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS WITH EVEN HIGHER
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND MONDAY. SOME
MODERATELY STRONG STORMS ARE BEING TRACKED ON RADAR THIS MORNING AND
WILL CONTINUE FIRING OFF THROUGH THE DAY. A PREDOMINANT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAIN HAZARD EACH DAY WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR CLEARING
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
WATERS. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 72 83 74 / 90 90 100 40
FMY 88 73 86 73 / 70 70 100 80
GIF 86 71 82 70 / 90 80 100 60
SRQ 85 72 83 72 / 80 90 100 50
BKV 85 70 83 65 / 90 90 100 30
SPG 84 73 82 75 / 80 90 100 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...GIARRATANA
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