616
FXUS62 KTBW 310102
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
NO CHANGE MADE TO EXISTING FORECAST AS GUIDANCE AND TRENDS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STORMS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BROKEN BAND OF OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. TIMING CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE NATURE COAST AND WCFL FROM THE MID-OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THROUGH JUST AFTER SUNRISE, AND SWFL FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
MID/LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, THE ONSHORE FLOW AS A RESULT OF THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING UP OVER
THE GULF AND SHIFTING INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
TODAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
TONIGHT, WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE SHOULD
BE AROUND THE TAMPA BAY REGION AROUND DAYBREAK AND THEN KEEP
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SPC KEEPS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENT, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY, THOUGH IT
DOES NOT QUITE REACH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WHICH LOOKS TO RETAIN RAIN
CHANCES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE THEN CREEPS BACK UP FOR THE
REST OF THE REGION STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN OF
THE HUMIDITY AS WELL AS DAILY RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE PENINSULA WITH
SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BAND OF MORE FOCUSED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS TERMINALS
SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
DURING PASSAGE, WITH LINGERING VICINITY CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND 8-12 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN/NEAR CONVECTION.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TODAY, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF NEAR-EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT, BUT THEN WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST AND DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO OTHER
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. NO OTHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FOG IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 86 76 89 / 60 60 10 20
FMY 77 90 75 89 / 30 70 60 50
GIF 74 86 71 89 / 40 60 10 30
SRQ 75 86 75 88 / 70 70 30 30
BKV 70 86 66 90 / 60 40 10 10
SPG 77 84 77 86 / 70 60 20 20
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY/FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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