964
FXUS62 KTBW 311223
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
823 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF
MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS SPRAWLED ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING DECAYING COLD FRONT. THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. DESPITE ONLY MODEST SHEAR BEING
PRESENT, COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALOFT WILL INCREASE LAPSE
RATES AND ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG OR DAMAGING STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE CONVECTION TODAY.
AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILL INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EACH DAY FROM AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY SOUTH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP NORTH OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AND
HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, FAVORING EASTERLY FLOW. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN STORMS BUILDING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY. WHILE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, MOISTURE
(AND RAIN CHANCES) WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A FEW HOURS OF THUNDERSTORMS, GUSTY WINDS, AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS
AND VIS. ONCE THE INITIAL LINE HAS PASSED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DONE BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL STALL SOUTH OF TAMPA AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FOR OUR TAF SITES SOUTH OF SRQ.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. GENERALLY WEST AND
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RUN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
HIGHER AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT, WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH FUELING
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETUP NORTH OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A DECAYING COLD FRONT, WITH A FEW STRONG
STORMS POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND ALLOW
FOR MORE SHOWERS TO SHIFT ONSHORE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO BUILD INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH DISPERSION
INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 85 75 89 77 / 80 20 30 40
FMY 88 75 89 75 / 70 60 70 60
GIF 85 72 89 72 / 80 20 40 40
SRQ 85 73 88 75 / 80 50 40 60
BKV 85 66 90 67 / 70 10 20 30
SPG 83 77 86 77 / 80 30 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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