931
FXUS62 KTBW 311757
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
157 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH TAMPA THIS MORNING WILL END UP
STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO OUR MONDAY. SIMILIAR TO TODAY WE
WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING TO FORM IN THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST. THE SHOWERS SHOULD START AROUND THE
TAMPA BAY AREA BEFORE MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. ONCE
AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DISSIPATING. WE WILL DO THE SAME THING AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO DISSIPATE AS SOME DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTH STARTS TO FILTER. THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY BUT SHOULD
LOWER STORM CHANCES FOR EVERYONE EXPECT SW FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL HELP TO ENHANCE OUR OUR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND WILL HELP TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS TO THE AREA. BY
NEXT FRIDAY THE LOW WILL BE DEPARTING AND WILL LEAVE US WITH A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
WEST COAST AS WE GO THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH SOME
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN LEFT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WE CAN
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS. THE FRONT HOWEVER WILL
STALL JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA AND ONCE AGAIN WE CAN EXPECT A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN THE GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STORMS LOOK TO FORM
SOUTH OF TPA, PIE AND LAL. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER BUT
CHANCES TO LOW FOR NOW TO ADD TO TAF.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A STALL FRONT JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE
US SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT EACH DAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRYING OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY AS DRIER AIR STARTING TO FILTER IN. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN THE
SAME ON WEDNESDAY BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP TO BRING STORM
CHANCES BACK MAINLY FOR THE COAST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA WILL KEEP OUR
HUMIDITY UP THROUGH MONDAY. EACH DAY WE CAN EXPECT OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BE HELPING OUR THE CURRENT
DROUGHT WE ARE IN. SOME SLIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON TUESDAY KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES LOWER BUT ONLY TEMPORALLY. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE INCREASING STORM
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 87 77 90 / 20 20 30 40
FMY 75 87 75 90 / 70 70 60 80
GIF 71 89 72 89 / 20 30 20 60
SRQ 73 85 75 88 / 50 40 50 50
BKV 66 89 67 91 / 10 10 20 30
SPG 76 86 77 88 / 30 30 40 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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