936
FXUS62 KTBW 011213
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
813 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PULLING
A SHORTWAVE DOWN INTO FLORIDA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER OVER
FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DISSIPATED FRONT, AND IS CONTINUING TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT, SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING, MAINLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH. AREAS OF RAIN ARE
FORECAST TO BE TAPERING OFF AND SHIFTING INLAND BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY, BUT A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SETUP ON MONDAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INLAND STARING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ON TUESDAY AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN NORTH OF FLORIDA SETTING UP EASTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES. UNDER THIS PATTERN, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION ALONG AND WEST OF AROUND
INTERSTATE 75. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NATURE COAST THAN WHAT WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND WILL SHIFT THE TIMING OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TO
LATER IN THE DAY. THE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND AT LEAST THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF SRQ. THE MOST IMPACTED SITES THIS
MORNING WILL BE IN SW FLORIDA WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 15Z. WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SIMILIAR SETUP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES TO SEE
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOUTH OF SRQ AFTER 08Z. CAN'T RULE OUT
A STORM OR TWO REACHING PIE OR TPA BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO KEEPING
IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL HOLD TODAY
AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD FRONT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE FROM THE GULF, MAINLY FROM
AROUND THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
BY TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP NORTH OF FLORIDA, RESULTING
IN EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE CRITERIA,
ALTHOUGH DAILY STORMS WILL CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND MONDAY,
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF,
MAINLY FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY SOUTH. HIGH DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 74 89 76 / 10 30 40 30
FMY 87 74 89 73 / 80 50 80 50
GIF 88 72 89 72 / 20 20 60 30
SRQ 86 73 88 73 / 40 50 60 40
BKV 88 66 91 67 / 0 10 30 10
SPG 86 77 87 76 / 20 40 50 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 5
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLANNERY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page