187
FXUS62 KTBW 020029
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
829 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
LATEST KTBW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING BUT WITH
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN PLACE AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION, IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL COVERAGE MAY BE A
BIT MORE THAN LAST NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EASTERN
US LONGWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAMPA BAY
AREA BUT IN GENERAL THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO SWFL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE
WELCOMED RAIN IN WHAT IS THE DRIEST REGION OF THE TBW CWA BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALIZED HIGHER
TOTALS, THOUGH WIDESPREAD HYDRO CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY BUT MOST
OF THE RAIN IS NOW DONE WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE
BOUNDARY STILL OVER US ALLOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4. HOWEVER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DIVE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY PUSH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA BUT ALSO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS HAVE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTTING OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND BECOME A LOW. THIS MEAN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE STUCK
DOWN HERE IN FLORIDA ALL WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES EACH DAY WITH POPS STAYING BETWEEN 70 TO 80 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME STRONGER STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.
BY SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LOOKS TO START TO
DISSIPATE ALLOWING FOR A MORE TYPICAL SEABREEZE THUNDERSTORM DAY
WITH POPS AROUND 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING
BUT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
ALONG AND NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FL PENINSULA. AS A RESULT, OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MAY
OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY MONDAY EVENING,
THOUGH OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT SWFL TERMINALS WHERE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
SHOWER AND STORMS OVER THE GULF WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SIT OVER THE AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHED OUT MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES IN AND STALLS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL SWITCH
OUR WINDS MORE NORTHERLY ON MONDAY AND THEN TO THE EAST FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY ALONG THE LAND BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS SHOWER CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH FOR THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER THE
STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 88 75 91 / 30 50 40 70
FMY 74 88 72 89 / 50 80 70 90
GIF 71 90 71 89 / 20 60 40 70
SRQ 73 87 72 90 / 50 60 60 80
BKV 66 90 66 92 / 10 40 20 60
SPG 77 87 75 89 / 40 50 50 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...GIARRATANA
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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