404
FXUS62 KTBW 021803
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
203 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
OUR MAIN FEATURE OVER MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN INTO THE GULF. THIS LOW WILL GET CUT
OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND END UP SPINNING JUST OFF
THE WEST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL DO A FEW
THING TO US. FIRST, IT WILL KEEP OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH
BRINGING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA CAUSING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. SECONDLY WE WILL BE SEEING VORT MAXES ROTATING
AROUND THIS LOW. THIS COULD HELP TO BRING US SOME STRONGER STORMS
AS THEY PUSH THROUGH. SO LONG STORY SHORT WE WILL BE SEEING HIGH
RAIN SHOWERS CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS.
AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND THE LOW STARTS TO WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO STAY IN A MORE TYPICAL SEABREEZE
PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP VCSH OR SHRA AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HRS. THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM
AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING JUST OFF THE COAST OF
WEST FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO BRING US ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT OUR WEEK WITH A FEW
STORMS BEING STRONG.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF WEST FLORIDA WILL KEEP
US UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AND GIVE US WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WHICH WILL HELP THE CURRENT
DROUGHT WE ARE IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 73 86 74 87 / 60 90 80 100
FMY 72 84 73 87 / 80 90 90 100
GIF 71 87 72 85 / 60 90 60 100
SRQ 71 85 72 85 / 70 90 90 100
BKV 70 88 69 87 / 40 90 70 100
SPG 74 85 74 85 / 70 90 90 100
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page