594
FXUS62 KTBW 031216
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
816 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS STALLED OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND
NE GULF. WITH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE (COMPLEMENTS OF
WHAT WAS ONCE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS FALLEN APART OVER
CENTRAL FL), THE COMBO CONTINUES TO FAVOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT NEARLY ANYTIME.
IN RESPONSE, TODAY'S PRIMARY HAZARD REMAINS LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN URBAN AREAS. GIVEN THAT
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AWAY FROM URBAN CORRIDORS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
SATURATED YET, THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS TO CAUSE
URBAN FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH SOME UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE
FORM OF ENHANCED PARCEL ACCELERATIONS DUE TO DIVERGENCE AND MID-TO-
UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ENHANCED LONGEVITY OF CONVECTIVE CORES IS
LIKELY. THIS COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED RISK FOR A STRONG STORM -
NOT UNLIKE YESTERDAY. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHEN DAYTIME HEATING MAXIMIZES THE
INSTABILITY.
BY LATE WEEK, THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH, BUT THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LOW TO ONLY MAKE IT OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS. THIS SUPPORTS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
REMAINING IN THE UPSTREAM WARM AND HUMID FETCH FEEDING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW, KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AND GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN SWFL ARE LIKELY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. BEING FARTHER REMOVED BY MID-WEEK,
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. MEANWHILE, THE NATURE COAST IS FAVORED TO SEE THE OPPOSITE
TAKE PLACE.
A CLOSER-TO-NORMAL SETUP LOOKS TO RETURN AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES -
AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE TIMING LOOKS MORE
REGULAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY PUSHING SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY INTO THE REGION
THAT FAVORS MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DURING THE MORE STANDARD
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME-FRAMES. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT NUANCES,
AND HOT AND HUMID PATTERN IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE GULF THIS WILL GIVE US
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A LOT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERING INTO THE FORECAST AT
AROUND 16Z AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH A TEMPO GROUP. ALSO ADDED VCTS TO THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS ANOTHER RIGHT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AT NEARLY ANYTIME ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
REGION. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY. OTHERWISE, AN ESE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED, BUT
COULD APPROACH 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR A COUPLE HOURS OVERNIGHT AS THE
ONSHORE RESISTANCE FADES AWAY WITH THE SETTING SUN. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY LATER IN THE WEEK, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER, AND
GRADUALLY VEER BACK TO THE WSW TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AT TIMES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
NO CONCERNS THIS WEEK WITH A SOGGY AND HUMID PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 73 84 76 / 90 80 100 80
FMY 84 72 86 75 / 90 90 90 50
GIF 87 72 84 73 / 90 80 100 60
SRQ 85 72 84 75 / 90 90 100 80
BKV 88 72 85 70 / 90 80 100 70
SPG 85 74 83 76 / 90 90 100 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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