988
FXUS62 KTBW 031848
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
248 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
TROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE STALLED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH OF
THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY WET PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
36 TO 48 HOURS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PUSHES AWAY WE WILL SWITCH
BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW REGIMES WILL BRING SOME EARLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO THE WEST COAST BEFORE STORMS MOVE INLAND INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. THIS REGIME SHOULD
STICK AROUND FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING US SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. I HAVE ONCE AGAIN TRIED TO HIGHLIGHT THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF WHICH WILL BE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. WE CAN ALSO EXPECTED WIDE SPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
START TO PUSH AWAY ON FRIDAY BRING WINDS DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. BY
NEXT SATURDAY WE WILL SEE A MORE TYPICALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
COMING INTO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE LAND BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF WEST FLORIDA WILL KEEP
US UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA AND GIVE US WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WHICH WILL HELP THE CURRENT
DROUGHT WE ARE IN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 87 73 84 76 / 90 80 100 80
FMY 84 72 86 75 / 90 90 90 50
GIF 87 72 84 73 / 90 80 100 60
SRQ 85 72 84 75 / 90 90 100 80
BKV 88 72 85 70 / 90 80 100 70
SPG 85 74 83 76 / 90 90 100 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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